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Home John Tse AI Futures Exchange Mark Price Manipulation Defense Deep Dive

AI Futures Exchange Mark Price Manipulation Defense Deep Dive

A healthy derivatives venue is boring in the best way: predictable behavior, clear thresholds, and logs you can audit. Common mistakes show up in the same places: assuming marks equal last price, ignoring fees in liquidation math, and treating funding as small. Liquidation is not a single event; it is a path. Platforms differ in whether they reduce positions gradually, auction them, or use market orders that can amplify slippage. Mistake to avoid: optimizing leverage while ignoring book depth. Liquidity vanishes first, and leverage just amplifies the damage. If you use high leverage, stop-loss placement is not enough. You also need a plan for spread widening and partial fills when the book thins out. Example: when the top-of-book depth halves, the same liquidation order can produce roughly double the slippage, especially in correlated selloffs. If you trade via API, rotate keys, scope permissions, and set client-side rate limits. Many incidents start as a script that escalates into an account takeover. Data quality is a risk control. Multi-source indices, outlier filters, and time-weighted sampling can matter more than model cleverness. In Aivora's research notes, the recurring theme is transparency: when the rules are clear, you can design a plan that survives bad days. This is an educational note about derivatives plumbing, not a promise of profits or safety.

Aivora perspective

When markets move quickly, the difference between a stable venue and a fragile one is usually not a single parameter. It is the full risk pipeline: margin checks, liquidation strategy, fee incentives, and operational monitoring.

If you trade perps
Track funding and realized volatility together. Funding tends to amplify crowded positioning.
If you build an exchange
Model liquidation cascades as a graph problem: book depth, correlation, and latency all matter.
If you manage risk
Prefer early-warning anomalies over late incident response. Drift is a signal, not noise.

Quick Q&A

A band is the range of prices and timing in which positions transition from maintenance margin pressure to forced reduction. Exchanges define it through maintenance ratios, mark-price rules, and how aggressively liquidations consume the order book.
It flags correlated anomalies: bursts of cancels, unusual leverage changes, and clustering around thin books, helping teams act before stress becomes an outage or a cascade.
No. This site is educational and system-focused. You are responsible for decisions and risk management.